Wemby vs SGA: NBA MVP Race With 2 Weeks Left

With just two weeks left in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the Most Valuable Player race has transformed from a foregone conclusion into one of the most compelling storylines in basketball. Victor Wembanyama — the 22-year-old phenom the world simply calls "Wemby" — is making a late charge at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the San Antonio Spurs are defying every preseason projection to emerge as legitimate Western Conference title contenders. If you've been searching for the latest on Wemby and where he stands in the MVP conversation, here's everything you need to know right now.

The MVP Race Has Dramatically Tightened

Earlier in March 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was practically coronated. His MVP odds sat at a jaw-dropping -1200 — the kind of number that signals a done deal, not a race. Fast forward to the final stretch of the regular season, and the picture looks entirely different.

As of March 30, 2026, SGA's odds have plummeted to -275, while Wembanyama has surged to +210, according to Sports Illustrated's latest MVP odds tracker. That dramatic swing — nearly 1,000 points of movement on SGA's side alone — tells the story of a race that bookmakers, analysts, and fans no longer consider settled.

SGA still leads the race. He's shooting an absurd 66.4 percent true shooting this season and remains one of the most efficient scorers in NBA history. But "favored" is very different from "inevitable," and Wemby's camp is making noise at exactly the right time.

Wemby's Case: The Best Two-Way Player in the NBA

What makes Wembanyama's MVP push so compelling isn't just his offensive brilliance — it's the totality of his game. The 7-foot-4 Frenchman is averaging 3.1 blocks per game, a figure that places him among the most dominant rim protectors in modern NBA history. But counting blocks alone undersells his defensive impact. Wemby disrupts passing lanes, alters shots he doesn't block, and anchors a Spurs defense that has been one of the league's most improved units.

On offense, he's a matchup nightmare: capable of operating as a point-forward, stepping out to drain threes, or posting up in the low block with a Dirk-like array of footwork and fakes. No other player at his size has ever offered this kind of skill set at age 22.

According to The Athletic's expert panel, two of three analysts rank Wembanyama second in the MVP race behind SGA — but the conversation is clearly shifting. Wemby's two-way dominance, combined with his team's remarkable success, has given voters something real to consider.

Wembanyama himself isn't shying away from the moment. On March 30, he was quoted saying "anything is possible" with the Spurs — a statement that is equal parts confidence and motivation, per NBC Sports.

The San Antonio Spurs Have Blown Past Every Expectation

Perhaps the most staggering number in this story isn't an individual statistic — it's a team one. The San Antonio Spurs were projected to win 44.5 games entering this season. As of late March 2026, they have already won 56.

That's an overperformance of more than 11 wins, which is essentially unheard of at this level. The Spurs, a franchise that has spent the better part of three years rebuilding around Wembanyama, have gone from lottery hopefuls to legitimate Western Conference powerhouses in a single season.

Even more telling: San Antonio holds a 4-1 record against the Oklahoma City Thunder this season — the same Thunder team that SGA leads and that currently holds the No. 1 seed in the West. The Spurs are close enough to potentially overtake OKC for that top spot, which would add yet another layer to the MVP debate. Historically, voters have leaned toward players on teams with better records, and Wemby closing the gap in the standings only strengthens his case.

As NBA power rankings analysis this week confirmed, the MVP race has effectively narrowed to two players: SGA and Wemby. Everyone else is playing for a mention.

The Luka Factor and Where Jokić Fits In

While the SGA-Wemby rivalry dominates the headlines, two other all-time talents are putting up numbers that can't be ignored.

Luka Dončić has been otherworldly since the All-Star break, averaging 35.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game. That production would win MVP in most seasons — but Luka's late-season surge, combined with his team's middling standing relative to the Spurs and Thunder, has kept him firmly in the "compelling argument, not the winner" category.

Then there's Nikola Jokić, the three-time MVP who never really leaves the conversation. The Nuggets center continues to flirt with near triple-doubles on a nightly basis, making him statistically elite as always. Yet like Luka, the broader context of team performance and narrative timing appears to be working against him this cycle.

The race, as it stands, is SGA's to lose — but Wemby is the one putting pressure on him to hold on.

The "Politicking" Controversy

Not everyone is charmed by Wemby's MVP campaign. Former NBA guard Quentin Richardson publicly stated that he doesn't appreciate Wembanyama's approach to campaigning for the award, suggesting that the way Wemby has spoken about the MVP race comes across as political maneuvering rather than letting his play speak for itself.

"We would be in the locker room like, 'What is he doing?'" Richardson said, per reporting from MSN Sports.

The criticism is interesting, but it also reflects the stakes. Players don't "politic" for awards they don't have a realistic chance of winning. Richardson's frustration is, in a backhanded way, a testament to how seriously the basketball world is now taking Wemby's candidacy.

What the Final Two Weeks Could Decide

The closing stretch of the regular season matters enormously for MVP voting, particularly when the race is this tight. Here's what to watch:

• Head-to-head matchups: Any remaining games between the Spurs and Thunder carry enormous weight — both for seeding and for voter perception.
• The No. 1 seed race: If San Antonio overtakes Oklahoma City for the top spot in the West, the narrative momentum shifts dramatically in Wemby's favor.
• SGA's performance: His odds have already fallen from -1200 to -275. Another cold stretch, or a Spurs surge, could tighten things even further.
• Wemby's signature moments: MVP voters remember what they saw last. A dominant closing week could swing borderline votes.

With two weeks left, the race is genuinely alive in a way it wasn't just three weeks ago. That in itself is a story worth following every night.

Frequently Asked Questions About Wemby and the MVP Race

Is Victor Wembanyama going to win the MVP award?

As of late March 2026, Wembanyama is still the underdog at +210, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holding -275 odds. However, the race is much closer than it was a month ago, and the final two weeks could shift things further. Wemby is a legitimate contender, not just a talking point.

How many blocks per game is Wembanyama averaging?

Wembanyama is averaging 3.1 blocks per game this season, one of the highest marks in the league. His defensive dominance is a cornerstone of his MVP argument alongside his offensive output.

How many games have the San Antonio Spurs won this season?

The Spurs have won 56 games, dramatically outperforming their preseason projection of 44.5 wins. This team-level success is a significant factor in Wemby's MVP case.

Can the Spurs still get the No. 1 seed in the West?

Yes. San Antonio holds a 4-1 record against Oklahoma City this season and is close enough in the standings that the No. 1 seed remains a realistic target with two weeks to play.

Why did SGA's MVP odds drop so dramatically?

SGA's odds fell from as high as -1200 to -275 due to a combination of factors: Wemby's late-season surge, the Spurs' extraordinary team record, and broader reassessment of the race by analysts and bettors. The Thunder's performance and remaining schedule have also contributed to uncertainty at the top.

The Bottom Line

Victor Wembanyama entered this season as a phenomenon. He's leaving it — regardless of how the MVP vote lands — as a legitimate franchise cornerstone, a two-way force that has carried San Antonio well beyond anyone's expectations. The MVP race between him and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now one of the most entertaining storylines in the NBA this spring, with real stakes attached to every remaining game.

SGA remains the favorite. But Wemby's belief that "anything is possible" with these Spurs? The numbers aren't disagreeing with him.