Steve Hilton Leads California Governor Race Poll 2026

Steve Hilton Leads California Governor's Race: What the Latest Poll Means

A new UC Berkeley IGS poll has upended conventional expectations in California's crowded 2026 gubernatorial race — and at the center of the surprise is former Fox News host Steve Hilton. With the June 2 primary still months away, Hilton has emerged as the frontrunner with 17% support among likely voters, navigating a fractured field marked by widespread voter disengagement and historically high unfavorable ratings across candidates. For anyone following California politics right now, this poll is the story.

Poll Results: Hilton at the Top of a Chaotic Field

The UC Berkeley IGS poll, conducted March 9–15, 2026 and published March 18, surveyed 5,019 registered voters — 3,889 of whom were considered likely to vote in the June 2 primary. The margin of error stands at 2.5 percentage points.

Here's how the top candidates stacked up among likely voters:

• Steve Hilton (R): 17%
• Chad Bianco (R): 16%
• Eric Swalwell (D): 13%
• Katie Porter (D): 13%
• Undecided or voting for someone else: 16%

The razor-thin margins tell a story of profound uncertainty. With Hilton and fellow Republican Chad Bianco separated by just one percentage point, well within the margin of error, the race remains functionally tied at the top. Meanwhile, a 16% chunk of likely voters remains either undecided or planning to vote for a candidate outside the current polling leaders — leaving the race wide open heading into spring.

Who Is Steve Hilton? A Brief Background

Steve Hilton is a British-born political commentator, former tech entrepreneur, and one-time senior advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron. He relocated to California's Silicon Valley and became a prominent conservative voice in American media, hosting the Fox News show The Next Revolution before departing the network. He is now channeling that media platform and national profile into a serious bid for California's governorship.

Hilton is running as a Republican in one of the nation's most reliably Democratic states — a fact that makes his current polling lead all the more striking. His candidacy hinges largely on anti-establishment messaging and direct criticism of the Newsom era's record on homelessness, crime, and the cost of living.

On the campaign trail, Hilton has also attracted notable financial support. He recently celebrated a significant campaign donation from a legendary golfer, calling himself "incredibly honored" — a signal that his fundraising operation is gaining momentum alongside his polling numbers.

Voter Disengagement: The Defining Feature of This Race

Perhaps the most striking takeaway from the UC Berkeley IGS poll isn't who's leading — it's the mood of the electorate itself. Poll director Mark DiCamillo put it plainly: he has "never seen a gubernatorial election quite like this with so many voters disengaged."

That disengagement is quantified in the favorability data. Virtually every major candidate in the race carries a higher unfavorable rating than a favorable one among likely voters. Katie Porter and Tom Steyer topped the unfavorability rankings at 37% each — a remarkable figure for candidates seeking statewide office.

This dynamic matters enormously for how to interpret Hilton's lead. Leading with 17% in a deeply disengaged field is not the same as leading a motivated, high-turnout electorate. It means Hilton has built a recognizable brand in a low-information environment — but it also means the race remains extraordinarily volatile. Any candidate who manages to consolidate a motivated base before June 2 could surge quickly.

California's top-two primary system, which sends the two highest vote-getters to the general election regardless of party, adds another layer of complexity. A Republican could realistically advance to the general — but would almost certainly face a Democratic opponent in a state where registered Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans.

Hilton Responds: Attributing His Rise to Anti-Newsom Sentiment

On March 19, 2026 — the day after the poll results dropped — Hilton appeared on Fox & Friends First to discuss his frontrunner status. In that appearance, he attributed his polling lead directly to voter dissatisfaction with outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, framing his candidacy as the clearest break from the policies of the past decade.

Hilton has consistently argued that Newsom's tenure has left California worse off on the issues voters care most about: the affordability crisis, homelessness, public safety, and the overall cost of doing business in the state. With Newsom constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, Hilton is positioning himself as the candidate who offers the sharpest contrast — not just a new face, but a fundamentally different governing philosophy.

That message appears to be resonating, at least within the current low-engagement environment. Coverage of the poll results has noted that both Hilton and Bianco — the two Republicans at the top — are benefiting from a Democratic field that has yet to consolidate around a single standard-bearer.

The Road Ahead: Debates, Deadlines, and the June 2 Primary

The next major milestone in the race is a Nexstar Media Group televised debate scheduled for April 22, 2026. Hilton has been invited to participate — a debate that carries a 5% polling threshold for entry. His 17% standing clears that bar comfortably, and the debate represents a significant opportunity to sharpen his contrast with both Republican and Democratic rivals in front of a statewide audience.

For Bianco, Swalwell, Porter, and the rest of the field, the debate is equally consequential. In a race defined by voter disengagement, a strong debate performance could drive meaningful movement in the polls. Conversely, a stumble could accelerate the consolidation of support around one of the frontrunners.

Between now and June 2, the key variables to watch include:

• Whether Democratic voters consolidate behind a single candidate (Swalwell or Porter) or continue to split their support
• Whether Hilton or Bianco can break away from each other on the Republican side
• How much the overall engagement level rises as the primary draws closer
• The impact of the April 22 debate on public perception of each candidate

California's June primary will determine not just who advances to the general election, but whether a Republican has a credible shot at the governor's office for the first time in two decades.

Frequently Asked Questions About Steve Hilton and the California Governor's Race

What poll shows Steve Hilton leading the California governor's race?

The UC Berkeley IGS poll, conducted March 9–15, 2026 and published March 18, shows Steve Hilton leading California's gubernatorial primary with 17% support among likely voters. The poll surveyed 5,019 registered voters, with 3,889 identified as likely primary voters, and carries a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Who are Steve Hilton's closest competitors in the race?

Republican Chad Bianco is in second place at 16%, effectively tied with Hilton within the margin of error. Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter are each polling at 13%, while 16% of likely voters remain undecided or plan to vote for another candidate.

Is Steve Hilton a Republican or Democrat?

Steve Hilton is a Republican. He is running as a conservative candidate in California's open gubernatorial primary, making his current frontrunner status particularly notable in a state that has leaned heavily Democratic for decades.

When is the California gubernatorial primary?

The California gubernatorial primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. California uses a top-two primary system, meaning the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.

Why are California voters so disengaged from this governor's race?

Poll director Mark DiCamillo of UC Berkeley IGS described the level of voter disengagement as unlike anything he has seen in a California gubernatorial race. The crowded field, combined with high unfavorable ratings for virtually every candidate, has left many voters unenthusiastic. Katie Porter and Tom Steyer both carry 37% unfavorable ratings — among the highest in the field — suggesting the electorate has yet to find a compelling standard-bearer.

Conclusion: A Fluid Race With a Surprising Leader

Steve Hilton's emergence as the frontrunner in California's 2026 gubernatorial race is a genuine political story — not because 17% is an overwhelming mandate, but because it reflects the unusual dynamics of an open-seat race in a state where voters are tuned out, candidates are broadly unpopular, and no one has yet broken through. His media profile, his anti-Newsom messaging, and his ability to raise serious campaign funds have combined to give him a measurable — if fragile — edge.

The coming weeks, and especially the April 22 debate, will test whether Hilton can convert name recognition into durable support. For California voters, political observers, and anyone tracking the future direction of one of the world's largest economies, this race is only just beginning to come into focus.